AARON ENGLAND, Ph.D.

NBA Postseason Probability Model (last update: 02/18/2019)

These predictions were generated using an ensemble of 10,000 RandomizedSearchCV tuned and 5-fold cross-validated XGBoost classifier models using the neg_log_loss scoring argument built from win percentage, mean age, and offensive and defensive per game team statistics from the 1973-1974 ABA season season until the 2017-2018 NBA season (1103 teams in total) provided by basketball-reference.com. After the 10,000 models were fit on the training data, predicted probabilites on the test data were averaged to construct a confusion matrix and compute/visualize the ROC AUC. Simultaneously, after each of the 10,000 models had been fit, predictions on the current data were generated and averaged. The code for this model can be found here

Classification model evaluation metrics:

Confusion Matrix

Predicted No Predicted Yes Total
Actual No 143 16 159
Actual Yes 15 171 186
Total 158 187 365

Classification Report

Precision Recall F1-Score Support
Postseason (no) 0.905 0.899 0.902 159
Postseason (yes) 0.914 0.919 0.917 186

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

Rank Team Probability Std
1. Indiana Pacers 0.9948 0.0162
2. Toronto Raptors 0.9944 0.0156
3. Milwaukee Bucks 0.9940 0.0091
4. Boston Celtics 0.9922 0.0164
5. Golden State Warriors 0.9914 0.0143
6. Philadelphia 76ers 0.9907 0.0207
7. Oklahoma City Thunder 0.9897 0.0215
8. Utah Jazz 0.9829 0.0268
9. Denver Nuggets 0.9761 0.0502
10. San Antonio Spurs 0.9600 0.0439
11. Portland Trail Blazers 0.9394 0.0743
12. Houston Rockets 0.9298 0.0550
13. Los Angeles Clippers 0.9111 0.0826
14. Minnesota Timberwolves 0.7630 0.1538
15. Brooklyn Nets 0.6677 0.1897
16. Sacramento Kings 0.5656 0.2323
17. Los Angeles Lakers 0.5290 0.2019
18. Charlotte Hornets 0.4926 0.1896
19. Dallas Mavericks 0.3725 0.2046
20. New Orleans Pelicans 0.3662 0.2580
21. Orlando Magic 0.3657 0.1968
22. Miami Heat 0.3459 0.1774
23. Detroit Pistons 0.3371 0.1684
24. Washington Wizards 0.2035 0.1490
25. Memphis Grizzlies 0.0905 0.0947
26. New York Knicks 0.0110 0.0179
27. Chicago Bulls 0.0104 0.0210
28. Cleveland Cavaliers 0.0101 0.0204
29. Atlanta Hawks 0.0091 0.0231
30. Phoenix Suns 0.0078 0.0125

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© Copyright Aaron England 2019