AARON ENGLAND, Ph.D.

NBA Postseason Probability Model (last update: 02/18/2019)

These predictions were generated using an ensemble of 10,000 RandomizedSearchCV tuned and 5-fold cross-validated XGBoost classifier models using the neg_log_loss scoring argument built from win percentage, mean age, and offensive and defensive per game team statistics from the 1973-1974 ABA season season until the 2017-2018 NBA season (1103 teams in total) provided by basketball-reference.com. After the 10,000 models were fit on the training data, predicted probabilites on the test data were averaged to construct a confusion matrix and compute/visualize the ROC AUC. Simultaneously, after each of the 10,000 models had been fit, predictions on the current data were generated and averaged. The code for this model can be found here

Classification model evaluation metrics:

Confusion Matrix

Predicted No Predicted Yes Total
Actual No 149 18 167
Actual Yes 15 182 197
Total 164 200 364

Classification Report

Precision Recall F1-Score Support
Postseason (no) 0.91 0.89 0.90 167
Postseason (yes) 0.91 0.92 0.92 197

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

Rank Team Probability Std
1. Philadelphia 76ers 0.8658 0.1095
2. Boston Celtics 0.8578 0.1063
3. Portland Trail Blazers 0.8532 0.1117
4. Indiana Pacers 0.8233 0.1281
5. Golden State Warriors 0.8193 0.1216
6. Toronto Raptors 0.8181 0.1220
7. Oklahoma City Thunder 0.8172 0.1244
8. Milwaukee Bucks 0.7862 0.1313
9. Denver Nuggets 0.7802 0.1338
10. Houston Rockets 0.3280 0.1902
11. Los Angeles Lakers 0.2116 0.1958
12. Los Angeles Clippers 0.2059 0.1918
13. San Antonio Spurs 0.2021 0.1646
14. New Orleans Pelicans 0.1963 0.1883
15. Utah Jazz 0.1830 0.1750
16. Minnesota Timberwolves 0.1711 0.1554
17. Orlando Magic 0.1687 0.1645
18. Washington Wizards 0.1681 0.1586
19. Brooklyn Nets 0.1668 0.1635
20. Dallas Mavericks 0.1667 0.1633
21. Memphis Grizzlies 0.1624 0.1574
22. Miami Heat 0.1607 0.1619
23. Sacramento Kings 0.1590 0.1590
24. Chicago Bulls 0.1507 0.1429
25. Charlotte Hornets 0.1420 0.1372
26. Cleveland Cavaliers 0.1361 0.1336
27. New York Knicks 0.1357 0.1348
28. Detroit Pistons 0.1356 0.1337
29. Atlanta Hawks 0.1334 0.1318
30. Phoenix Suns 0.1314 0.1304

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© Copyright Aaron England 2019